2025/2026 EPL Table Predictions

Posted byJohn Morton 1 Comment on 2025/2026 EPL Table Predictions
  1. Manchester City
    1. https://fbref.com/en/matches/8613020d/Wolverhampton-Wanderers-Manchester-City-August-16-2025-Premier-League 
    2. I originally had them second, but I talked myself into putting them third. Then I talked myself into putting them first. It’s a combination of their form down the home stretch last season, Guardiola’s obsession and the combined hunger of the guards, new and old.
    3. John Stones RB? Is his body to be trusted?
  2. Arsenal
    1. https://fbref.com/en/matches/643d26fd/Manchester-United-Arsenal-August-17-2025-Premier-League
    2. I do think Zubimendi will be big down the stretch — having a proper positional play pivot
      1. Or is this a last throw of the dice to retain a positional identity while the league pivots away from it?
        1. Vicious cycle of the league becoming more athletic and the league becoming more transitional — I think Zubimendi will be fine, but it puts two archetypes of players in awkward spots — the technician (unathletic — Jorginho, Harry Winks, I am sure there are others) and the traditional workhorse (James Ward-Prowse — running for days but not super fast)
    3. I am worried about Kai Havertz’s health
      1. False nine Bukayo Saka?
        1. Is Gyokeres their Zlatan (Barcelona days)?
      2. They did go in for Eze before I wrote this, but I don’t think it changes things enough. 
  3. Liverpool
    1. I had them lower because they are bedding in a ton of players, but by that same argument Manchester City and Chelsea should also suffer. So, if they are all suffering, it is what it is. 
    2. The other worry for me is how thin they are in key areas (central midfield and defense). 
    3. I rate Slot really highly though. 
  4. Chelsea
    1. https://fbref.com/en/matches/2185fc64/Chelsea-Crystal-Palace-August-17-2025-Premier-League 
    2. I could see them higher if they settle on a primary strategy with somewhat expected rotations / adaptations for certain circumstances. 
  5. Tottenham
    1. https://fbref.com/en/matches/d41bb8b3/Tottenham-Hotspur-Burnley-August-16-2025-Premier-League 
    2. My surprise package and potentially higher up. 
  6. Manchester United
    1. https://fbref.com/en/matches/643d26fd/Manchester-United-Arsenal-August-17-2025-Premier-League 
    2. Without Europe and with the players all seemingly much fitter, I think they’ll make a real go of it. 
  7. Aston Villa
    1. https://fbref.com/en/matches/bbdf4739/Aston-Villa-Newcastle-United-August-16-2025-Premier-League 
  8. Brighton
    1. https://fbref.com/en/matches/57c49bae/Brighton-and-Hove-Albion-Fulham-August-16-2025-Premier-League 
    2. I do think Hurzeler will improve
  9. Newcastle
    1. https://fbref.com/en/matches/bbdf4739/Aston-Villa-Newcastle-United-August-16-2025-Premier-League 
    2. This assumes they don’t figure out the Isak situation. 
  10. Bournemouth
    1. I just think they’re going to win games. They’ll lose games too, but when they’re good they’re phenomenal and I think their recruitment has been quite smart. 
  11. Nottingham Forest
    1. https://fbref.com/en/matches/855f8b5e/Nottingham-Forest-Brentford-August-17-2025-Premier-League 
    2. Wolves dropped off from 7th to 13th when they made the Europa League under Nuno. That was the COVID season, however.
  12. Fulham
    1. https://fbref.com/en/matches/57c49bae/Brighton-and-Hove-Albion-Fulham-August-16-2025-Premier-League 
    2. Between Fulham, Palace and Everton I don’t think there’s much to choose from and I tentatively have them all around 46 points.
    3. I am worried about Fulham’s age curve.
  13. Crystal Palace
    1. https://fbref.com/en/matches/2185fc64/Chelsea-Crystal-Palace-August-17-2025-Premier-League 
    2. I am worried about Guehi and Eze going and I think they may just bite the bullet and accept losing Guehi, though they do have the carrot of playing time in a World Cup year.
  14. Brentford
    1. https://fbref.com/en/matches/855f8b5e/Nottingham-Forest-Brentford-August-17-2025-Premier-League 
    2. I thought they might go down if they lost Wissa, but that’s somewhat mitigated by adding Ouattara. I like KLP, Yarmoliuk bedded in well last year, Henderson and Kelleher are smart additions and with Damsgaard back I think I’ve talked myself into them being fine.
  15. Everton
    1. https://fbref.com/en/matches/0701e218/Leeds-United-Everton-August-18-2025-Premier-League 
    2. On a different day, I think they’ll have more success with second balls, more territory, more shots and generally just be better. I think stylistically they’re pretty turgid, but they will win matches. 
  16. Leeds
    1. https://fbref.com/en/matches/0701e218/Leeds-United-Everton-August-18-2025-Premier-League 
    2. Despite putting up 2.0 xG on 20 shots vs Everton, just two (aside from the penalty) were on target and Everton had 17 blocks. It makes me worry for their offense going forward.
  17. West Ham
    1. https://fbref.com/en/matches/e1058522/Sunderland-West-Ham-United-August-16-2025-Premier-League 
    2. I was comparing/contrast Potter’s style with Gasperini at Atalanta given the superficial similarities of shape and using possession defensively (patience), but there are key differences. First, Atalanta play man-to-man defensively and there’s a huge emphasis accordingly on duels and fitness, which I don’t think West Ham have. I know from experience that when you emphasize possession (and resting in possession), you can de-emphasize fitness. I’m not saying that’s what has happened, but it can. I also think the emphasis on field tilt within Potter’s positional approach versus Gasperini’s more relational one means that the average quality of the chance created is lower. Furthermore, the adaptations made by the league as a whole to combat Guardiola’s positional play have negative consequences for derivatives employing a similar style, like Potter.
      1. Certain pragmatism — play until you can’t, safe diagonals from the GK
    3. Finally, my gut reacting to the 0-3 loss at Sunderland is that you’ve got midfielders who can’t run (fast — relative to the league) and central defenders who can’t defend aerially. Obviously ‘can’t’ is hyperbole, but there’s a real soft underbelly here that Potter is trying to mask with possession. 
    4. I saw certain similarities to Manchester United last year — trying to slow things down in possession, back three, no legs in midfield. Interestingly, both clubs got LWBs first, albeit with Manchester United getting a head start last January. Both teams have neglected midfield, and generally speaking teams haven’t made moves there (Sadiki and Xhaka at Sunderland, Stach and Longstaff at Leeds, Henderson to Brentford). The Henderson and Xhaka moves belong in one clear bucket, Stach and Longstaff I’d group in another, and then Sadiki is the young prospect.
      1.  Milambo and Diarra (also Brentford and Sunderland are 8/10 types I’m excluding for the moment). 
      2. Paqueta – Fullkrug – Bowen is a very interesting front three and both WBs have certain qualities, but that arrangement means a double pivot with lots of ground to cover. 
    5. This article suggests that, at the time of writing (April 3, 2025) West Ham had put up 84 shots worth 8.53 xG, which works out to .102. In 24-25, Atalanta had 538 shots worth 65.0 xG for an average of 0.121.
    6. I guess my big question is how soon does he get sacked and who comes in?
      1. Dyche? Southgate? 
  18. Sunderland
    1. https://fbref.com/en/matches/e1058522/Sunderland-West-Ham-United-August-16-2025-Premier-League 
    2. Nedum Onuoha’s point about learning from the second attempt
    3. Being back in the Premier League potentially meaning more for these (raucous) fans rather than a yo-yo club. 
    4. Sunderland seemed to have learned vicariously and made some serious signings. 
    5. I originally had them 18th, but after reconsideration (and the three points) I am changing my mind. 
      • On third reconsideration (things are never as good as they seem, things are never as bad as they seem), I’ve got them falling just short.
    6. One point of credit I had for them was creating competition within the squad. 
  19. Wolves
    1. https://fbref.com/en/matches/8613020d/Wolverhampton-Wanderers-Manchester-City-August-16-2025-Premier-League 
    2. I was reasonably impressed with Wolves’ approach play through the first two thirds, but then they were utterly stymied by Manchester City’s smart offside trap. The Munetsi/Bellegarde attacking pair is workmanlike more than silky and the WB recruitment is uninspiring. David Moller Wolfe was one of the players I looked at when Manchester United were sniffing around LBs last year. My thought process was to follow the Kerkez trail and I found Wolfe to be a willing runner, good crosser and a solid defender in a positional/zonal sense, but not a great 1 v 1 defender. I had him pegged as a player who would go to a mid-table Bundesliga club and be perfectly fine there (2+5 type seasons and maybe he improves a bit defensively). He is bigger and should help a bit on set pieces too. He took one corner which does add to his value if he is consistent there. Ki-Jana Hoever has been okay in the Championship and France and again might be okay, but there’s a lot of ‘just okay’ type pieces here and it is worrying. 
    3. Sa’s inconsistency
  20. Burnley
    1. https://fbref.com/en/matches/d41bb8b3/Tottenham-Hotspur-Burnley-August-16-2025-Premier-League 

I will go back and add some flourish to this (or trim out links), but I wanted to put this out into the ether before the second matchweek kicks off in 90 minutes with West Ham vs Chelsea.

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